Bitcoin (BTC/USDC) - Bottom consolidation before bullish trend

Date of Analysis: April 1, 2025 

Chart Timeframe: Daily 

Strategic Scenario (6 to 12 months) 

Bitcoin remains firmly in its Strategic Bullish Trend, supported by strong demand above the $64,900 Strategic Support level. The long-term outlook indicates a potential breakout above $130,000 and $140,000, contingent upon the resolution of the current tactical consolidation. 

Key Observation: 

The dominance of Bitcoin has surged to 61,4% (01/04/2025 - source coinmarketcap) of the total crypto market capitalization since November 2024, marking its highest level since 2021. This confirms Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to the broader crypto market, a trend that remains strongly active and further reinforces long-term bullish sentiment. 

Tactical Scenario (1 to 3 months) 

BTC is consolidating in a deeper setback towards the Strategic support area first before engaging a new upside trend expected when FED will activate new rate cut in parallel of lower rate on 10YUS. 
 
The $89,000 Tactical Resistance is a critical level for confirming a continuation of the bullish trend meaning that as long as the market is trading below there is more probability to see a bottom pattern formation happening during April to June 2025. This Bottom pattern is expected to be challenged $73,000 to 64,900 support area with a first selling pressure observed at $84,000 (selling pressure). 

Tactical Outlook: 

Preference: The consolidation within the $89,000–$73,000 range may persist briefly before the directional structure resolves. 

Alternative: A breakout above $89,000 will confirm the resumption of the uptrend, with a near-term target at $116,000. 

IMPORTANT: The Tactical Pause presents an excellent Smart DCA Zone to consolidate long-term Bitcoin positions. The alignment of strategic and tactical levels provides confidence for investors while offering tactical opportunities for traders. 

Technical Key Elements 

• RSI Indicator: Bearish below 50% - Divergence purged 

• Moving Averages: EMA(34) and EMA(89) remain bearish below $89,000 

• Tactical Resistance: $89,000 

• Tactical Target: $73,000 

• Elliot Wave Analysis: 

• Wave (4) consolidation in progress, with Wave (5) expected upon a breakout above $89,000 

Trade Idea Conclusion 

 Sell Tactical Strategy: 

Consider selling any recovery below $89000 to play an aggressive short move toward $73000 

Buy DCA Strategy: 

Consider $73000-64900 as a long-term bottom DCA zone, any test of the support area is considered as a entry level for long-term position 

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic  

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21) 
 
 

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