99% Chance Bitcoin Dominance Has Peaked if Ethereum Rally Continues, Says Analyst

Author: Ciaran Lyons
Published: ~2 hours ago

Introduction

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland says Bitcoin’s market dominance is likely to have peaked if Ethereum maintains its current upward trend.

“If ETH turns bullish and stays bullish versus BTC, there’s a 99% chance BTC dominance has topped,”Hyland wrote in an X post on Tuesday.

Bitcoin Dominance Trends

Hyland argues it's “fundamentally impossible” for Bitcoin’s dominance to rise if Ethereum continues outperforming it:

Bitcoin dominance (BTC share of total crypto market cap) sits at 63.82% at time of writing.

That’s up 9.89% year-to-date but down 1.35% over the past 30 days (source: TradingView).

“It is impossible for dominance to go higher if ETH keeps going up relative to BTC,” Hyland added.

Market Rotation Into ETH and Altcoins

In the last seven days, Bitcoin dominance fell 1.85%.

Crypto trader Ash Crypto attributes this to money flowing into ETH and altcoins.

Typically, rising Bitcoin dominance indicates investor preference for BTC over altcoins, while falling dominance suggests growing confidence in the broader altcoin market.

Ethereum's Strong Performance

ETH traded at $3,166, up 19.87% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Trader Cas Abbe noted ETH is in one of its “most obvious bullish formations” and approaching a breakout.

Relative Strength: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin

Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin has increased nearly 10% over the last 30 days.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, told Cointelegraph he expects Bitcoin’s market to cool slightly after Monday’s peak at $122,884, but sees the upward trend resuming later this year.

“I see some consolidation here after the big move, but ultimately higher by year-end,” Edwards said.

Analyst Expectations for Bitcoin

Despite TradingView’s moving average indicator signaling a “strong sell” for BTC, many analysts remain bullish.

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, told Cointelegraph he doesn't see Bitcoin entering a downtrend soon, citing strong fundamentals.

“Bitcoin isn’t likely to enter a downtrend any time soon,” said Mena.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin dominance remains historically elevated, Ethereum’s rally is shifting capital flows toward ETH and altcoins.

Analysts suggest BTC may consolidate in the short term but maintain an upward trajectory by the end of 2025—while Ethereum's relative strength and bullish structure continue to challenge Bitcoin's market share.