Senior economists expect global recession in 2023 - Davos survey

The global economy is likely to fall into recession in 2023, according to a poll of senior economists ahead of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is due to start in earnest later today, the first time the winter gathering of politicians and business leaders has taken place since coronavirus pandemic lockdowns began.

The majority of 22 chief economists surveyed by the WEF believe a global recession is likely in 2023. All of the chief economists surveyed expect weak or very weak growth in 2023 in Europe, while 20 said they expected weak or very weak growth in the US.

There are several definitions of what constitutes a “global recession”. The most obvious is a decline in global economic output. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) used to say that 3% growth was equivalent to a recession (while taking into account other factors such as demographic change and business investment). The IMF has forecast that around a third of the global economy will enter a recession in 2023, and its outlook for global GDP is growth of 2.7%.

Economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect slow growth in 2023. Photograph: World Economic Forum

The economists came from a panel that includes the chief economists of companies such as Bank of America, Barclays, Google and Unilever, and non-governmental organisations like the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations Development Programme.

Saadia Zahidi, WEF’s managing director, said:

The global economy is in a precarious position. The current high inflation, low growth, high debt and high fragmentation environment reduces incentives for the investments needed to get back to growth and raise living standards for the world’s most vulnerable.

Leaders must look beyond today’s crises to invest in food and energy innovation, education and skills development, and in job-creating, high-potential markets of tomorrow. There is no time to lose.

Source : [Economists warn of global recession danger ahead of World Economic Forum at Davos – business live](news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiiwFodHRwczovL3d3dy50aGVndWFyZGlhbi5jb20vYnVzaW5lc3MvbGl2ZS8yMDIzL2phbi8xNi9lbmVyZ3ktZ2FzLWVsZWN0cmljaXR5LXByaWNlcy1lcXVpbm9yLWZ0c2UtMTAwLWNvc3Qtb2YtbGl2aW5nLWluZmxhdGlvbi1idXNpbmVzcy1saXZl0gGLAWh0dHBzOi8vYW1wLnRoZWd1YXJkaWFuLmNvbS9idXNpbmVzcy9saXZlLzIwMjMvamFuLzE2L2VuZXJneS1nYXMtZWxlY3RyaWNpdHktcHJpY2VzLWVxdWlub3ItZnRzZS0xMDAtY29zdC1vZi1saXZpbmctaW5mbGF0aW9uLWJ1c2luZXNzLWxpdmU?oc=5) undefined - UK Energy Boss Ukraine•21The Guardian / January 16, 2023