(Neutral) Ethereum at a Crossroads: Navigating Consolidation with Key Levels in Focus

Market & Ticker: Ethereum – ETH/USDC 

Date: 17/01/2025 
Horizon / Timing:  Tactical Mid-term / 1 to 3 months 
 

Strategic Long-Term Horizon (6 to 12 months) 

Ethereum (ETH) has reached the first Strategic Target of 4,000, defined in December 2023, and maintains upside potential toward 4,840 for 2025. 

Tactical Mid-Term Horizon (1 to 3 months) 

After testing resistance near its previous high (4,000), ETH is trading in a range, undergoing complex consolidation before potentially resuming its upward trend. For the coming days, we have identified a wave (iv) zone between the 3,700 resistance and 3,100 support. 

There is still a possibility of a larger consolidation within a trading range on a higher fractal horizon (weekly basis) in wave IV, which could result in a final downside swing toward 2,600 or even 2,120 in extension. 

Given this context, we are cautious in presenting a bullish outlook due to the high risk of a prolonged trading range and ETH's underperformance relative to BTC in terms of market dominance. 

As long as 3,100 remains valid support on a daily close and 3,700 holds as resistance, we maintain a Neutral stance. Only a clear break of these levels will determine the next move: 

A breakout above 3,700 would target 4,840 on the upside. 

A breakdown below 3,100 would expose ETH to 2,820 and potentially 2,600 on the downside 
 
NB: ETH remains in under-performance versus BTC 

Technical Key Elements: 
- RSI indicator at resistance  
- The Moving average area mixed 
- Fibonacci key resistance area at 3700 and support at 3300 
- Elliot wave pattern is neutral with wave (iv) in progress 

Trade Idea conclusion: (Range) 

Tactical Bullish target max: 4840 

Tactical pivot resistance: 3700 

Tactical Pivot support: 3300 

Tactical bearish target: 2820/2600 

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic  

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21) 

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