Bitcoin (BTC/USDC) - Tactical Setup Eyes $116,000 While DCA Zone Remains Active

Bitcoin (BTC/USDC) 

Date of Analysis: May 21, 2025 

Chart Timeframe: Daily  

Strategic Scenario (6 to 12 months) 

Bitcoin remains firmly in its Strategic Bullish Trend, supported by strong demand above the $64,900 Strategic Support level. The long-term outlook indicates a potential breakout above $140,000, especially upon the resolution of the former tactical consolidation towards $73 000. 

Key Observation: 

The dominance of Bitcoin has surged to 63,1% (21/05/2025 - source coinmarketcap) of the total crypto market capitalization since November 2024, marking its highest level since 2021. This confirms Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to the broader crypto market, a trend that remains strongly active and further reinforces long-term bullish sentiment. NB : On the Short-term ETH is showing pre signal reversal versus BTC wihich is not the case on Alts Coin. 

Tactical Horizon Analysis (1 to 3 months) 

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the $97,000 resistance, and is now on the way to test intermediate resistance at $109,000 with eyes on the Tactical Target at $116,000. The pattern structure reflects a Wave B recovery leg within a broader corrective flat, or potentially a resumption of Wave 5 advance which highlights risk at $116,000 – A downside swing can’t be ignored regarding the wave B still active after having test $116,000. 

Price remains supported by rising 21/34/89 EMAs (currently stacked in bullish order), reinforcing upward momentum in the short-term. 

However, the RSI is capped within a horizontal resistance box (~68–70), signaling a potential for local exhaustion or brief consolidation – there is no divergence . 

Alternative Scenario 

A clear daily close above $116,000 would invalidate the intermediate corrective count, confirming renewed bullish momentum and resumption of the Wave 5 extension. In this scenario, price may accelerate toward $140,000+ strategic levels earlier than anticipated. 

Conversely, failure to breach $97,000 decisively could trigger a pullback toward the DCA SMART ZONE ($86,000), with additional downside potential toward the Tactical Target at $73,000. 

Technical Analysis Summary 

RSI: Neutral-Bullish; hovering around 68, showing strength but capped by horizontal resistance zone. 

Moving Averages: 

EMA 21: Rising at $101,669 

EMA 34: Rising at $98,661 

EMA 89: Rising at $93,609 

All aligned bullishly. 

Fibonacci Levels: 

Tactical Resistance: $116,000 

Tactical Support: $97,000 

Strategic Support: $64,500 

Elliot Wave: Advancing in Wave B or final Wave 5 following Wave (IV) completion. 

Tactical Trade Recommendations 

🎯 Buy Strategy (Bullish Bias): 

Initiate long positions above $101,000, with targets at $112,000 and $116,000. Add exposure on breakout above $116,000 in daily close confirmed for upside continuation to $130,000–$140,000. Maintain stop-loss below $97,000. 

🚨 Alternative Sell Strategy (downside swing Bias = range): 

If Bitcoin fails to break $97,000 convincingly, consider short setups targeting $88,500 and $86,000, with extension toward $73,000 in the case of deeper correction. 

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic  

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21) 
 
 

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