Market & Ticker: Bitcoin – BTC/USDC

Date: 26/08/2024

Horizon / Timing:  Tactical Mid-term / 1 to 3 months

Scenario:

The Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck within a wide descending trading range pattern Since March 2024. The recent macroeconomic statistic in the US is now leaning towards an imminent US rate cut a head of the next FED rate decision expected for 18 September 2024. This is the key macroeconomic factor to engage a new robust upside trend on risky asset class such as Bitcoin.

This consolidation is expected to end between Summer 2024 and November 2024 a head of the US Rate cut decision from FED following by US election and new regulation frame in Europe (MICA).

Last week, BTC reached 65 000 target resistance - At current price we are focus on 56 500 Key support to develop a further recovery towards 72 000/73 000. Note that only BTC benefits a strong outperformance versus crypto market for the time being. 

Technical Key Elements:

• RSI indicator turns positive 
• The Moving average are now support above 61300
• Fibonacci key resistance area at 72 000 and support at 56 500
• Elliot wave pattern remains unclear with 2 consolidation scenarios (wave 4 or potential wave 2)

Trade Idea conclusion: (Buy)

• Tactical Bullish target max: 73 000
• Tactical Bullish target: 72 000
• Tactical Pivot support: 56 500
• Tactical alternative bearish target: 48700 and 38 400

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic 

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21)

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