Market & Ticker: Bitcoin – BTC/USDC

Date: 30/09/2024

Horizon / Timing: Tactical Mid-term / 1 to 3 months

Scenario:

The Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck within a wide descending trading range pattern Since March 2024. The recent macroeconomic statistic in the US is now leaning towards an imminent US rate cut a head of the next FED rate decision expected for 18 September 2024 (- 0,5% as expected). This is the key macroeconomic factor to engage a new robust upside trend on risky asset class such as Bitcoin.

This consolidation is expected to end between September 2024 and November 2024 a head of the US Rate cut decision from FED following by US election and new regulation frame in Europe (MICA).

Last week, BTC reached 66500. The near term potential stands at 69100 while 61700 is acting as key support. The Pause expected before US election is between 61700 and 73000 maximum = Range.

Technical Key Elements:

• RSI indicator is above 50%
• The Moving average are support
• Fibonacci key resistance area at 69100 and support at 61700
• Elliot wave pattern remains unclear with 2 consolidation scenarios (wave 4 or potential wave 2)

Trade Idea conclusion: (Neutral)

• Tactical Bullish target max: 77 000
• Tactical Pivot resistance: 73 000
• Tactical Pivot support: 61700
• Tactical alternative bearish target: 53900 and 48700

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic 

Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21)

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