Futures Inch Up; PCE Data Ahead; Trump Unveils New Tariffs — What’s Moving Markets

Source: Scott Kanowsky via Investing.com
Date: September 26, 2025 Investing.com

U.S. stock futures rose modestly Friday as markets awaited fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and digested a new wave of tariff announcements from former President Trump. 

Futures & Market Mood

At 03:02 ET, Dow futures were up by 73 points (+0.2%), S&P 500 futures gained 9 points (+0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures added 16 points (+0.1%). 

The previous day, markets were pressured by surprisingly strong economic data: weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, and the second‐quarter GDP figures were revised up. These reports have complicated expectations for further Fed rate cuts. 

Yields on short-dated U.S. Treasuries moved higher, reflecting increased sensitivity to interest rate expectations. 

The PCE Data in Focus

All eyes are on the August PCE price index, a key measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve tracks closely. 

Economists project the core PCE inflation rate will rise 0.2% month‑on‑month and settle at 2.9% year‑on‑year, matching July’s levels. 

Market pricing suggests an ~88% chance of a 25 basis‑point Fed rate cut in October and about 62% odds for another cut in December (via CME’s FedWatch). 

However, analysts warn that upside surprises in GDP or jobless claims could muddy the outlook and diminish clarity on the Fed’s next moves. 

Trump’s Tariff Moves

Trump announced sweeping new tariffs to take effect on October 1, including:
  • 100% duty on branded or patented pharmaceuticals 
  • 25% duty on imported heavy-duty trucks 
  • Tariffs on kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture, and other goods 

The measures are being justified on grounds of protecting domestic industries and national security. 

As a result, pharmaceutical firms in Europe and Asia slid: among the worst hit in early trading were Novo Nordisk, Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca. 

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal report suggests the U.S. may push policies requiring domestic semiconductor production be matched with import volumes, fueling concern among foreign tech and chip firms. 

Stocks of ASML, ASM International, and Infineon saw declines of over 1%. 

Other Market Moves

Gold remained relatively steady as investors balanced tariff risks and anticipation around inflation data. 

Oil prices rose, supported by tensions around Russian energy infrastructure and an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories, tightening supply expectations.