Market situation 5/12/2022
Starting this week on the same path as the last week meaning that the drivers of the traditional market remain a focus on the inflation KPI and the ability of the US stock market to exit from the bear market that started last year at the same period.
👉 Looking at #SNP500 the daily chart shows the index at key graphical resistance and close to 4110 resistance to breaking in daily close to confirm the exit from the corrective pattern = this is the key element to watch to maintain a bullish scenario for the next week on Risky asset class (3650 and 3880 key support for a direct upside break)
👉 #USD Weakness is also important in the global macro picture, and here we can also be confident with a further USD weakness looking at #EUR/USD chart
1,0260 daily support for direct test of 1,07 area then 1,002 to watch for a larger rise towards 1,0850
👉 10Y breakeven (St louis) is more mixed this week a head of the next Jerome Powell decision (fed) = rate hike expected at 0,75 but more comment from FOMC members shows a possible 0,50 rate hike for next Fed Meeting.
🔍The market should stabilized (SNP500) in an ascending range to be ready to kick off in case of more dovish comment from Powell.
👉 US10Y Yiled remains under pressure below 3,90% a head of the Fed meeting which is also align with a further risk appetite mood on risky asset class.
👉 #ETH & #BTC align with SNP500 still oriented to the upside with the BTC resistance at 17200 bypassed this week end. Both of them are now pushing up to be align with recent SNP500 recovery (= FTX bad mood absorbtion)
👉We should not see a direct beak of 1350/1450 upside break of ETH without a bypass of 4110 on SNP500
I recommend to stay prudent once this resitance is being reached because crypto market will not break alone those key resitance, crypto need the traditional market validation first to maintain the current recovery dynamic.
🔍First support to watch on #ETH at 1260 and 1200
🔍First support to watch on #BTC at 16900 and 16400
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