Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States is unlikely “the main story” behind Bitcoin’s recent pump — with an analyst pointing instead to a post-halving supply shock. 

“If you’re wondering what’s happening with #Bitcoin… Yes, the incoming Bitcoin-friendly administration has provided a recent catalyst… But, that’s not the main story here,” said Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers in a post on X on Nov. 11. 

“The main story here is that we are 6+ months post-halving.”

The Bitcoin halving in April cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which means every next block becomes harder to solve for less reward. 

Myers added that this means a supply shock has accumulated. “There’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” and supply-demand price equilibrium must be restored.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), introduced in January this year, have exacerbated that demand. On Nov. 11, US Bitcoin ETFs saw another huge day for inflows, with around 13,940 BTC purchased in one day compared with just 450 BTC mined.

“The only way to do that is for the price to go higher, which will flywheel into mania and a bubble, but that’s how this thing works.”

He added that it sounds crazy to say there will be a reliable and predictable bubble every four years, but there has never been an asset in the world where new supply creation is halved every four years.

“A post-halving bubble is the result,” he said, highlighting that this happened before after halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020, and now it is happening again, and prices will go much higher. 

Onchain analyst James Check echoed the sentiment, comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to gold, which has added about $6 trillion over the past year but has “hundreds of billions of new and recycled supply coming to market.”

Bitcoin is just $1.6 trillion in market cap and is “absolutely scarce with holders who have been through hell many times,” so it will go higher, he predicted. 

On Nov. 12, American financier Anthony Scaramucci hinted at the same thing, saying to those not already long on Bitcoin, “It may feel like you missed it, but you didn’t. It’s early.”

He was confident that the US would establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and other countries would follow, along with institutional asset allocators and managers.

As of today, 94% of all the Bitcoin in existence are already in circulation or lost, which means there are only about 1.2 million BTC left to be mined, putting further pressure on supply and demand. 

Source : Cointelegraph - Nov 12, 2024