Bitcoin Consolidation: Tactical Pause Before the Next Big Move?
Bitcoin (BTC/USDC)
Date of Analysis: March 7, 2025
Chart Timeframe: Daily
Title “Trading range with volatility’
Strategic Scenario (6 to 12 months)
Bitcoin remains firmly in its Strategic Bullish Trend, supported by strong demand above the $64,900 Strategic Support level. The long-term outlook indicates a potential breakout above $130,000 and $140,000, contingent upon the resolution of the current tactical consolidation.
Key Observation:
The dominance of Bitcoin has surged to 60.8% of the total crypto market capitalization, marking its highest level since 2021. This confirms Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to the broader crypto market, a trend that remains strongly active and further reinforces long-term bullish sentiment.
Tactical Scenario (1 to 3 months)
After the test of $82,500 last week BTC almost confirmed a risk of deeper consolidation in sideways with an extension to 73,000. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has paused as the price stabilizes above the $82,500 Tactical Support level, forming a consolidation pattern. The $104,000 Tactical Resistance is a critical level for confirming a continuation of the bullish trend while $82,500 Tactical Support is supporting the market to test $104,000. In case of 82500 penetration the consolidation will end in the long-term DCA area between 73 000 and 64900
Tactical Outlook:
• A breakout above $104000 will confirm the resumption of the uptrend, with a near-term target at $116,000.
• The consolidation within the $82,500–$104,000 range may persist briefly before the directional structure resolves.
IMPORTANT: The Tactical Pause presents an excellent Smart DCA Zone to consolidate long-term Bitcoin positions. The alignment of strategic and tactical levels provides confidence for investors while offering tactical opportunities for traders.
Alternative Scenario
If Bitcoin closes below the $82,500 Tactical Support, a deeper corrective move could materialize, targeting $73,000. However, the Strategic Bullish Trend would remain intact as long as the price holds above the $64,900 Strategic Support.
Technical Key Elements
• RSI Indicator: Neutral, recovering above 40%, signaling the end of bearish momentum.
• Moving Averages: EMA(34) and EMA(89) remain bearish below 104 000
• Key Levels:
• Tactical Support: $82,500
• Tactical Resistance: $104,000
• Alternative Tactical Target: $73,000
• Fibonacci Levels:
• Alternative support: $73,000
• Higher Target: $116,000
• Elliot Wave Analysis:
• Wave (4) consolidation in progress, with Wave (5) expected upon a breakout above $104,000.
Trade Idea Conclusion
🎯 Buy Strategy:
Consider entering long positions above $85,000, with stop-loss set below $82,500. Target tactical levels at $99,000 and 104 000 (SMART DCA)
🚨 Alternative Sell Strategy:
Consider selling any recovery below $104000 to play an aggressive short move toward $73000
Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic
Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21)
Disclaimer: The content of this analysis should not be considered as a study, an investment advice or a recommendation concerning products, strategies or a particular investment opportunity. This content is strictly for illustrative, educational or informational purposes and is subject to change. Investors should not base their investment decision on the content of this site and are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice for any investment they are considering.
