(BTC/USDC) - Bottom consolidation before bullish trend
Date of Analysis: March 21, 2025
Chart Timeframe: Daily
Title “Bottom consolidation before bullish trend’
Strategic Scenario (6 to 12 months)
Bitcoin remains firmly in its Strategic Bullish Trend, supported by strong demand above the $64,900 Strategic Support level. The long-term outlook indicates a potential breakout above $130,000 and $140,000, contingent upon the resolution of the current tactical consolidation.
Key Observation:
The dominance of Bitcoin has surged to 60.8% of the total crypto market capitalization since November 2024, marking its highest level since 2021. This confirms Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to the broader crypto market, a trend that remains strongly active and further reinforces long-term bullish sentiment.
Tactical Scenario (1 to 3 months)
After the invaidation of $82,500 tactical support in January, the BTC confirmed the necessitity to consolidate in a deeper setback towards the Strategic support area first before engaging a new upside trend expected when FED will activate new rate cut in parallel of lower rate on 10YUS.
The $95,000 Tactical Resistance is a critical level for confirming a continuation of the bullish trend meaning that as long as the market is trading below there is more probability to see a bottom pattern formation happening during April to June 2025. This Bottom pattern is expected to be challenged $73,000 to 64,900 support area with a first selling pressure observed at $86,800 (take profit of current recovery).
Tactical Outlook:
Preference: The consolidation within the $$95,000–$64,900 range may persist briefly before the directional structure resolves.
Alternative: A breakout above $95,000 will confirm the resumption of the uptrend, with a near-term target at $116,000.
IMPORTANT: The Tactical Pause presents an excellent Smart DCA Zone to consolidate long-term Bitcoin positions. The alignment of strategic and tactical levels provides confidence for investors while offering tactical opportunities for traders.
Technical Key Elements
• RSI Indicator: Bearish below 50% - Divergence purged
• Moving Averages: EMA(34) and EMA(89) remain bearish below 95000
• Tactical Resistance: $95,000
• Tactical Target: $73,000
• Elliot Wave Analysis:
• Wave (4) consolidation in progress, with Wave (5) expected upon a breakout above $95,000
Trade Idea Conclusion
Sell Tactical Strategy:
Consider selling any recovery below $95000 to play an aggressive short move toward $73000
Buy DCA Strategy:
Consider $73000-64900 as a long-term bottom DCA zone, any test of the support area is considered as a entry level for long-term position
Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic
Indicators: Exponential Moving Average (21/34/89) - RSI (21)
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