ETH - Bullish Continuation Above $2,500 with Tactical Focus on $3,180 and $4,050

Ethereum (ETH/USDT) 

Date of Analysis: July 11, 2025 

Chart Timeframe: 1D (Daily) 

Strategic Scenario (6 to 12 months): 

Ethereum remains within a wide trading range, continuing its long-term swing corrective waves between 800$ and 4,840$. The recent rebound from the C2 low reinforces the case for a strategic upside continuation. If the bullish momentum holds, long-term targets are positioned at $4,050 (intermediate) and $4,840 as the next major strategic resistance zone. 

This outlook aligns with a completed corrective structure (Wave C2), suggesting the initiation of a new impulsive leg, provided price action maintains above the key pivot at $2,500. 

Tactical Scenario (1 to 3 months): 

Following a confirmed recovery from the tactical support zone around $2,200, Ethereum is now challenging the key resistance level near $3,180. The price is positioned above the 20/50/100 EMA cluster, indicating regained bullish momentum on the daily timeframe. 

A daily close above $3,180 would confirm the breakout and open the path toward the next tactical target at $4,050. If confirmed, the tactical scenario projects further bullish continuation, with interim retracements expected to be shallow and potentially retest the $2,700–$2,500 pivot zone (Pullback) 

Alternative Scenario: 

Should Ethereum fail to hold above the $2,500 pivot zone in a sustained manner (daily close below), bearish pressure could resume, dragging price back to test lower tactical supports at $2,200 and $2,040, and eventually the broader corrective target around $1,250–$1,200 if risk sentiment deteriorates. 

Technical Key Elements: 

RSI: Bullish divergence confirmed, RSI crossing 50 upward, signaling upward momentum initiation. 

Moving Averages: Bullish crossover with price above 20, 50, and 100 EMAs, supporting the short-term upside. 

Fibonacci Levels: 

Tactical Resistance at $3,180 (38.2% retracement from peak) 

Strategic Resistance at $4,050 and $4,840 (61.8% and 78.6% zones respectively) 

Support: $2,500 Pivot, then $2,200 and $2,040 

Elliot Wave: Wave C2 likely completed; market may now be starting Wave 1 or Wave 3 of a new impulsive cycle upward. 

Trade Idea Conclusion: 

Buy Strategy: 

Initiate long positions on confirmed daily close above $3,180 or in setback around 2700, targeting $4,050, with potential extension to $4,840. 

Stop-Loss below $2,500 (daily close), ideally managed with a dynamic trailing stop once above $3,180. 

Alternative Sell Strategy: 

If ETH/USDT closes below $2,500, expect renewed downside targeting $2,100 and $1,950, with possible extension toward $1,250 if macro or technical conditions deteriorate further. 
 

Chart: Daily Basis (Candle Stick) - Logarithmic  
Indicators: Exponential Moving average (21/34/89) - RSI (21) 
 
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